Hey, all you organizers
HARD DATA:
On the issue of masks required OR optional, here is some actually
useful, vaguely understandable data, published by NEJM, New England
Journal of Medicine. NEJM (Nee-gem) is one of the world premiere
medical journals.
Since I'm interpreting this, my creds are an SB, MIT in physics, and an
engineer in medical devices. I do numbers. And I'm on the committee
for the Thursday Night Dance at Scout House in Concord MA.
Attached is a summary sheet for a NEJM article on lifting the mask
mandate in Boston public schools. My hypothesis -- opinion -- is that a
contra dance is comparable to packing a bunch of kids into a school.
You'll want to view the PDF to see what I'm talking about.
The UPPER RIGHT GRAPH, the important lines are the lower three lines --
two red and one blue. The red lines are the case rates 2 and 3 weeks
AFTER lifting the mask mandate. The blue line is the case rate for
schools NOT lifting the mask mandate. By engineering standards, the two
red lines peak about 50% higher than the blue line.
In the RESULTS paragraph on the left, last sentence: "One third of the
Covid-19 cases that occurred..." This is another way of expressing a
50% increase.
Do masks PREVENT Covid? We all know they don't. Neither do vaxes and
boosters. What they do is stack the ODDS in favor of individuals and
COMMUNITIES not getting Covid.
I strongly believe that stacking the odds is the responsible way to go.
I do NOT believe in basing policies on surveys of dancer preferences.
Mac Sloan
On 23/01/07 5:56 PM, Laura Alexander wrote:
Hi Mac,
My understanding of transmission risk is based on information from
mainstream epidemiologists, not surveys. As a scientist not working in
epidemiology, I'm curious for expert information and seek it out.
Believe it or not, I still think our position is appropriate and
responsible. I'm aware of these studies and the information you shared,
but thank you for mentioning them. I'm happy to continue this
conversation offline, but I'd hope you refrain from making assumptions
in the future about what people understand.
Laura
On Sat, Jan 7, 2023 at 3:27 PM Walker Sloan <sloan(a)medevelop.com
<mailto:sloan@medevelop.com>> wrote:
"Our understanding on transmission risks..." Surveys reflect
preferences, not science.
Science: In Nov '22, per the CDC, bivalent boosted people had 1/3rd
the
chance of testing positive. This means that requiring bivalent
boosters
will dramatically cut the number of positives dancing in your hall.
See attachment. Light green box at the bottom.
With XBB.1.5 this number has yet to be determine. But odds are there
will be a good effect.
Do vaxes prevent Covid? No, but the odds of Covid producing a bad
outcome in vaxed and boosted people go WAY down: Testing positive,
transmitting, hospitalization, death -- WAY down.
Holding dances for unvaxed people not only endangers them, but ALSO the
folks they go home to and go to work with.
Holding unvaxed or vax-optional dances prolongs the pandemic.
Regardless of surveys or understandings.
Mac Sloan
On 23/01/07 2:07 PM, Laura Alexander wrote:
Arden contra (in Delaware) has a policy
that's very similar to
Montelier's, and for the same reasons. We surveyed this fall and
dropped
our vaccine requirement, and we'll survey our
community again this
month. Without a significant change to our understanding on
transmission
risk difference between vaccinated and
unvaccinated people, we won't
consider re-excluding unvaccinated people. If it's not safe
enough to
dance for community conditions and hospitals,
we'll postpone dances.
Whole policy:
- vaccines strongly encouraged
- masks required
- hall with excellent ventilation
- contact tracing with mandatory info collection, system run by a
responsible person outside the community, announced at the dance
and in
a follow-up email
- announcement that if anyone feels sick after the dance, we
expect them
to get tested ASAP
- rapid tests available to those without access
Thankfully we haven't had any known transmission yet since
restarting in
March 2022. We average around 40 attendees per
dance.
I agree with Julian, I hope every local area has a space that's
taking all precautions available, and it also makes sense to me
to have
mask-optional dances if there is no foreseeable
change to covid risk.
Thanks for the thread, everyone - it's useful to see what other
dances
are doing.
Laura Alexander
On Sat, Jan 7, 2023 at 12:13 AM Walker Sloan via Organizers
<organizers(a)lists.sharedweight.net
<mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net>
<mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net
<mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net>>> wrote:
Another pebble in the pond --
* Current booster verified
* N95, KN95, KF94 required
* Request cases to be reported back to the organizers
* Emails collected to report cases anonymously to the community
* Max venue ventilation -- cold drafts this time of year in
the North
NONE of these is sufficient to prevent Covid. ALL of them
help reduce
transmission.
None of us organizers volunteered to be public health
officials. And
certainly not protocol cops. But it makes
sense for us to
STACK THE
ODDS as high as possible in favor of
COMMUNITY health.
Maximizing community safety takes precedence over individual
preference.
That's the most responsible way to organize a dance. Not
just for the
benefit of our dancers, but also for the
greater community in
which all
of our dancers live.
Mac Sloan
Thursday Night Dance, Concord Scout House, MA
Walker Sloan
sloan(a)medevelop.com <mailto:sloan@medevelop.com>
<mailto:sloan@medevelop.com <mailto:sloan@medevelop.com>>
On 23/01/06 11:18 PM, Julian Blechner via Organizers wrote:
Question for anyone with the "you will
alienate someone" or
"everyone
has a different level of risk" mindset:
In other areas of life, do you consider someone's personal
preference
> (like not wearing a mask) the same as someone's health
needs (like
having a
health condition, or a family member who does)?
Like, how is this "both sides have a preference" narrative any
different
> from able-bodied people being like "Oh, well, I just don't
like
handicapped ramps, I prefer steps"?
I'm not asking to be mean or rude. I genuinely would love an
explanation.
>
> I think there actually _is_ a way to please most people,
and not
just
> disregard people with medical conditions (or family with
them).
> That is - making sure no area's
dances are all mask-optional.
> There's a big difference between an area having _some_
mask-optional
> dances, sure, but if they're _all_
mask-optional.
>
> Thanks,
> Julian Blechner
>
> On Fri, Jan 6, 2023 at 5:56 PM John and/or Jan Bloom via
Organizers
> <organizers(a)lists.sharedweight.net
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>
<mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net
<mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net>
<mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net
<mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net>>>> wrote:
>
> As Alan said, whatever you do you will alienate someone.
>
> What I did with the Brunswick ECD was to ask all of
the dancers
> - would you dance if masks were
required
> - would you dance if masks were optional
> and so on.
>
> Then I picked the rules that maximized the number of
dancers.
>
> I realize that this is harder for Contra, where you
have a lot of
> dancers that you can't ask,
including potential future
dancers.
> But in my case it seemed like the
right way to do it.
>
> John Bloom
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