The better question is whether we can, in any state, safely hold events
over 20 people, let alone 50 or 100, until we have a vaccine.
Regretfully,
Ron Blechner
On Mon, Jun 1, 2020, 9:24 PM Laur via Organizers <
organizers(a)lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:
We are booking local callers and bands for Sept-Dec in
Kalamazoo MI. We
stipulate this is dependent on COVID and community spread risk.
Michigan has just lifted its Stay at Home executive order. It is hoped we
will be on contained status by July 4.
We try to stay optimistic. Our concern is community attitude. If the
community isn’t ready to dance in September we will pause until October. At
that time hold a dance watch attendance and move forward from there.
We hold 2 contra dances a month. One Sunday “just fun” dance and one
English dance per month.
We have not made a decision in Grand Rapids and Lansing
Laurie Pietravalle
West MI
Country Dancing in Kalamazoo
Grand River Folk Arts
Looking Glass Music and Arts Association
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On Monday, June 1, 2020, 8:14 PM, Winston, Alan P. via Organizers <
organizers(a)lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:
Seth asked:
I’m curious to hear if you are starting to book callers for your fall and
winter dances… Are you booking in hopes that COVID-19 has somehow been
resolved? Are you waiting longer?
It seems to me that it is going to be a while before we can safely have
contra dances, given the close proximity to every one and the heavy
breathing. Do we have to wait for a vaccine?
And I reply:
I'm a caller, a series programmer, and chair of our local SF Bay Area CDS
affiliate, which ordinarily runs 14 series (contra, English, teen, etc).
Organization-wide, we instructed all series programmers not to book
July-September and canceled any pre-existing bookings (offering to pay the
staff the guarantees they would have gotten if the event happened). We've
been working on grants and fee-for-service projects to get our freelance
musicians some income and plan to keep that up, and online events with tip
jars (waltz concerts, tune lessons) to keep furthering our mission and to
give the musicians support.
We haven't made a formal statement about the Oct-Dec quarter, and we
haven't yet canceled our English dance weekend scheduled for November, but
I'm pretty sure we'll have to, and I'm pretty sre
Our position in the Bay Area is that we have a *lot* of local talent, both
callers and musicians. If a contra dance started looking like a good idea
to us as organizers and to the halls we use, we think we could pull a
pretty good one together on very little notice. It's way better for
morale, I think, to be ready to put one together if its possible than to
fill a calendar full of things we'll most likely have to cancel, and to
bend our efforts towards things we *can* do - including online English and
contra events.
I am myself immunodeficient, diabetic, and 60, so I'm likely to get
COVID-19 if exposed and with a co-morbidity, wouldn't count on doing well
with it, so I'm pretty cautious. (Not "never go outside and have all the
groceries delivered" cautious, but "avoid any situation where I can't
maintain social distancing and wear a mask indoors" cautious.) Contra
ticks all the boxes for a hazardous activity: usually indoors and usually
without HEPA-filtered fresh air, exertion requiring heavy breathing,
difficult to do masked, can't maintain social distance, keep touching
sweaty people, etc.
What it would take for me to go safely to a contradance is knowing that I
can't get it (effective, widely distributed vaccine, or that I've had it
and am immune [requires definitive answer on how much immunity antibodies
provide and for how long, effective testing with no false negatives], or
knowing that nobody else in the room has it and is shedding virus [and only
9 out of 10 people who have it spike a fever, so temperature sensors are
not good enough]; we need quick / reliable / cheap tests that can identify
asymptomatic virus spreaders and if they're not 100% reliable produce false
positives rather than false negatives, or finally that if I do get it
there'll be a reliable and effective treatment available.
Society as a whole can get by without a vaccine or a treatment if there's
frequent testing, quarantine of positives, contact tracing, repeat Absent
that we social distancing and caution can reduce the spread, but there's no
will in the Federal executive to make that happen because they're focused
on reopening the economy. In a patchwork environment where some states are
acting responsibly and some aren't and it's very hard to close state
borders, efforts of responsible states will be undermined. Further, since
states can't print their own money, a lot of Federal support is needed for
them to behave responsibly, and the Senate is not altogether on board with
that.
Very long way of saying: Doesn't necessarily need to be a vaccine, but
there needs to be *something* among the four paths of "able to test at the
door and refuse admission to virus shedders", "minimize the severity of the
illness with cheap, effective treatment or even cheaper, effective
prophylaxis with no or tolerable side effects", "effective, available
vaccine with tolerable side effects", and "extinguish virus by identifying
and quarantining carriers and doing robust trace-and-test". Currently not
one of those is available to us and there's no reason to believe they will
be available in 2020 - but a lot of people are working on vaccine /
treatment / prophylaxis / testing, so maybe there'll be something in the
foreseeable future.
I don't know about your community, but ours skews older (despite the
valued presence of some younger people, some of them also
immunocompromised) and has associated comorbidities, so I'm included to
view our holding dances I wouldn't feel safe going to as irresponsible, and
even a deal like "only let people in who sign a waiver saying that if they
get sick they won't sue us" risks not only affecting our dancers but anyone
they come in contact with, so is not an acceptable option for me.
I hate it, but that's how I see it.
-- Alan
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