I think waiting for a vaccine is overkill. At some point, you have to let
people make up their own minds. There will be a few things to consider: 1)
At some point, restaurants, sporting events, and schools will all start
back up again. 2) Mass testing and antibody testing will become active. 3)
Hopefully some treatments will present statistically significant efficacy.
4) Staying cooped up and without socialization are already resulting in
increased suicide rates and are generally unhealthy in the first place.
What 1) means is that people will start coming in contact with people
again, even if it means in the background of at-the-door temperature
checks, abundant hand sanitizer, etc., and our dances wouldn't be the only
risk factor in one's life by far. 2) means that we will be able to make far
more knowledgeable decisions on who should go out. It also means that if
you do feel sick, you'd be able to get tested and treated early. You'd also
be able to know if you're already immune. 3) , especially in conjunction
with 2), means that covid-19 becomes less fatal. There are I think
something like 300 clinical trials in progress looking for treatments. Some
are garbage, but others are showing promise. 4) means that there is
pressure from the other end saying that at some point, the danger posed by
socializing becomes lower than the danger posed by continued isolation.
While I don't think those will all come at the same time or in quick
succession, I think they'll all be true before a vaccine is approved for
use in the US. I think 1) is two to three months away, 2) is probably two
months away, 3) could be realized by the end of this month (albeit
production capabilities would need to ramp up), and 4) is beyond my
knowledge base. The kicker, in my mind, is that that means potentially
dancing in August? But then it's likely that we'll see a resurgence in fall
again, and we'll see if our capabilities mean we go on lockdown again or do
the S. Korea approaches of widespread, aggressive testing with contact
tracing.
Jonathan Roveto
Owner/Member
Fair Oaks Holdings, LLC
Cell: (559) 961-7497
PO Box 684492
Marietta, GA 30068
On Thu, Apr 9, 2020 at 9:22 AM Lisa Sieverts via Organizers <
organizers(a)lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:
Organizers, what are your plans for restarting your
dances?
I had a conversation with a smart person the other day, who said “we
probably can’t dance again until there is a vaccine for this corona
virus.” And that might be 12-18 months away.
If that’s the case, what should our organizations be doing during that
period of time? And how many dances just won’t restart?
What conversations are you having within your organizations?
Thank you,
Lisa
Monadnock Folklore Society
Lisa Sieverts
603-762-0235
lisa(a)lisasieverts.com
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