I'm in the same boat. Orlando's dance is about 20 dancers each week. We've been at it since last summer and the numbers have not changed. About half the group is newbies each time. A few come back, but often after 2-4 dances they don't come anymore. One referred to contra as "cute", and I suppose the easy dances are. We have just a handful of regulars. So, I've been giving this a lot of thought. I don't have magic answers, or I wouldn't still have the problem. Some observations:
I can't call anything too complex with that number of newbies. If someone has come half a dozen times, they're likely outgrowing the dance and getting bored. They probably have all my dances memorized, too. It may be the experienced dancers I need to incentivize, not the newbies, if I want to retain people after a few weeks! Raising the level toward the end of the evening is hard, as then we only have about 12 dancers, half newbies. Finances are hard, too. I'd hire another caller if I could afford it. I've done it a few times, but that's not enough. CDSS grants are far below the $500/week of a basic dance with hall, music, caller, and sound.
People today have many more options of things to do than in the past. They often like to try out different things with the same friend group. They may feel that coming every third time is a deep commitment to the dance. This makes it hard for the group as a whole to improve enough to retain many dancers after a few times, as it takes each person several months rather than several weeks to get good. The lower level drives experienced people away.
People do social activities to connect with others. They either need to go with friends who already like it (so this is the only option for hanging out with those friends that night) or they need to make friends there. It's good to have a welcoming committee. It's good if people verbally welcome the new dancers and ask them to dance. It's far better if people strike up genuine friendships with them, such that they want to return to hang out and dance with those people. But, it is difficult to arrange something genuine, especially across generations. Things like going out for ice cream afterwards help, though.
People who have come a few times are less likely to make a point of coming the very next time than either regulars or newbies who have seen an ad and decided they want to try it. Even though we have a calendar of future dances and we make a lot of announcements on social media and I personally send an individual Facebook chat to every dancer in my friend list, I still get plenty of, oh I have something that night, gee if only I'd known, etc. I've made business cards with QR codes for the dance and hand these out both as ads for people to give to friends and to remind them to put the next dance on their calendar.
It goes without saying that if people (especially younger women) are experiencing unwanted behavior or are being treated in an unpleasant way, they won't come back. Reactively managing these problems isn't enough. You often won't hear about them unless you seek them out by making a safe space and asking people individually whether they're always treated well. Setting behavioral expectations and letting people know of the recourse paths starts in the workshop and continues with signs and mentions during the dance. A culture of consent and courtesy is key. If nobody is returning, you might have a problem of this sort.
To make the dance attractive to a given group, put that group on your board in sufficient numbers to change the program and outreach so that it attracts more of them.
We were all (mostly) dragged to a dance by a friend. Find the people doing this (the social centers of each friend group) and incentivize them.
People bond over food. Have snacks at the break.
Make it free for students, young people, and low-income or jobless people if you're hoping to attract them. Ask people who are well off to make up the difference, in private, one-on-one conversations.
I've heard a lot of anecdotal information about second-dance-free cards and the like. I am curious if anyone has real data about their effectiveness.
But, the bottom line is, if it were really the best experience of their lives, they'd come back. I'm doing what I can to get better at calling and to have better music, to raise the funds to have different callers and live bands every time, and to advertise, advertise, advertise, so the numbers come up, we can afford a quality program, and the experience improves.
--jh--