I think others who have criticized contact-tracing for individual dance
events as ineffective have a valid point.  As Joe said, people are going
about their daily lives without masking, for the most part, in most parts
of the country.  Like Perry, I've seen commuters on the DC Metro wearing
masks (like 80% before 7am, lowering to maybe 25% at night), but that's by
far the highest proportion of folks who wear masks I've seen out in public
where they're not required.
But I think experiences from camps and other longer sessions can provide a
more accurate picture of transmission at dances.  At Pinewoods this summer,
we had a lot of COVID transmission at a couple of our sessions that did not
require masks, and given the length of the sessions in question plus who
had close contact with whom, etc, it is pretty easy to trace those
infections to camp.  When I say a lot, I mean closer to 100 infections than
to 0, with as many as 40% of folks in one session who got COVID.  We had no
such outbreaks at any sessions that required masking for the first few
days, which was most of the sessions this past summer.  Not every session
that did not require masks had a COVID outbreak, so there's definitely some
element of luck there (which, I suspect, is what has spared other weeklong
camps that have looser or no restrictions).
We also took CO2 readings to see if we could improve ventilation to reduce
transmission risk.  But almost every area at camp was consistently
well-ventilated, to the point where aerosol transmission was not
particularly likely.  I'm bringing that up because some folks have
mentioned that perhaps masks do not help stop the spread of COVID to others
if you create gaps in the mask when exhaling.  A mask with gaps in it may
not stop transmission via aerosols, but my understanding (limited as it is)
is that it will at least help stop droplet transmission.  That said, I also
agree with others who have pointed out that a well-fitted N95 should not
have such gaps even on exhalation, and mine don't (I wear glasses, and they
do not fog when I wear an N95).
My takeaway is that, unfortunately, there will be COVID transmission at
dances that do not require high-filtration masks, even if you have folks
testing before, even if you require vaccination, etc.  I don't think it's
unreasonable to take Joe's position that any such risk is basically ok
because dancers are unlikely to die from COVID these days, but that's not
my perspective.  And while that perspective may work ok for a weekly or
monthly series, it's much more difficult in a closed environment where
people are spending all of their time together for several days.
-Dave
On Thu, Jan 5, 2023 at 3:51 AM Winston, Alan P. via Organizers <
organizers(a)lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:
  I think the argument about whether masks protect only
the wearer or other
 people is kind of a red herring (although my opinion is that a well-fitting
 N95 or better protects other people and I know my Airgami has enough of a
 seal that if I breath out I can see the mask puff up).  I don't really
 think a surgical mask does much.  If I could only have one intervention
 (out of the suite of vax, test, mask, temperature check) I would definitely
 pick N95-equivalent mask wearing, rigourously enforced.
 And I'm generally in full agreement with Perry.
 Why I'm bothering to write is that there's meat to Joe's initial question
 about whether protective measures discourage dancers (and especially young
 dancers) from showing up and whether there's an impact both in short term
 attendance and long term viability of the dance form as a result of
 requiring protective measures.
 In my organization our COVID policy is informed by epidemiological advice,
 and we know that no protections are 100%, but our goal is to have no
 preventable transmission of COVID at our dances, so we require vaccination
 and booster (and will require a bivalent booster as of February 1), AND
 mask wearing (KF94, KN95, N95, or equivalent tech mask at CDC yellow and
 red levels, down to well-fitting cloth masks at green levels), AND a little
 questionnaire that you have to fill out about whether you have symptoms,
 have tested positive, had anyone else in your household test positive AND
 at higher levels you have to step outside to take a drink of water or eat a
 snack AND at CDC Red level you have to get a negative test within six hours
 of the start of the dance (and show us a photo on your phone).  It's a lot,
 it's a burden on the volunteers who run the different dance series,
 attendance at our contra dances is notably down since before the pandemic
 shutdown.  More of our English dances tha
  n our contras have come back and they're mostly doing just about as well
 as they did before - they were always smaller, but attendance hasn't
 dropped as much.  We do get some new dancers at each series.
 There's staff we'd love to hire because they're unvaccinated (and because
 this is for the safety of all it doesn't matter whether they have a
 doctor's note about why they're unvaccinated; we're not punishing
 anti-vaxxers), we have at least one formerly very reliable volunteer who
 can't come because unvaccinated.
 We think we have the right goal - no preventable transmission at our
 events - and a set of actions that seem to be achieving it, so we're
 staying the course with that.
 We think the close contact and heavy breathing of contra dancing
 (especially) makes it a higher risk activity than most and merits more
 precautions, so we have continued with our requirements as our counties
 have dropped mask mandates.
 But it really does come at a cost.  There are people who can't dance in
 masks and they don't dance with us any more.  The Bay Area contra community
 has fragmented more and a couple of dance series have started that operate
 on different rules - negative test, mask if you wanna, don't come if you
 feel sick.  (And at least one of those something like a third of the
 attendees tested positive in the following week, I'm told..). But I'm glad
 these other series exist, so that people can choose their personal risk
 levels, and so that people who can't dance under our rules have an outlet
 to dance with people who are willing to accept that risk.
 So: Whatever set of precautions you choose (including the empty set) you
 will exclude someone.  There are people who won't dance if they have to
 mask; there are people who won't dance if unmasked people are dancing.
 Etc.  This is not an issue where people can really meet in the middle.  In
 the pandemic-still-going-on-but-everybody's-tired-of-it era, you'll
 alienate *somebody* no matter what you choose.
 None of us *like* to make people unhappy or exclude them, so this is
 difficult.  And I'm afraid it's going to stay difficult for a long time.
 Further, the "right answer" depend on your goals - and I don't actually
 think "no preventable transmission" is the only valid goal; I wouldn't
 think that somebody who was working on "nobody dies because of a
 transmission at one of our events" was a monster - so there's no right
 answer and everything will be unsatisfactory in some way.
 So, to Joe's questions: Yes, they do discourage some people who were
 showing up from showing up.  And they put a fliter on which people are
 willing to try it if they have to wear a mask, and because attendance is
 smaller and most recruitment is word of mouth, there are fewer people
 recruiting, and in some environments insisting on a full suite of
 precautions could, in the short or long term, kill your dance.  It
 absolutely could.
 And you have to decide whether that risk is more or less acceptable to you
 than having as little chance as possible of someone getting COVID at your
 dance.  That's it.  Your call.  There will be a spectrum of responses.
 (I was being, I think, pretty good at being nonjudgmental up to this
 point, but I'm going to blow that now by pointing out that young people are
 famously not very good at risk assessment - there's a reason car insurance
 rates go down when you're over 25 -  so if you're running dances for
 college students you might have a little extra responsibility to take more
 care of them than they would.)
 -- Alan
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