(Gainesville, GA, here)

My focus is trying to understand the math.
We'll be able to dance again when our country's herd immunity for CV is high enough to suppress CV,
i.e. when average number of transmissions, R0, < 1.0.
Wikipedia's article explains it well
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Because CV is new, we don't really know it's herd immunity.
Referenced article has it pegged between 29% and 74% of the population for CV.
Our U.S. population is approximately 330M.
Hence we need somewhere in the range of [96 to 244M] people who are immune to CV
either via a vaccine or from natural anti-bodies to stop the pandemic.
Social distancing and related measures are an artificial way
to alter R0 by giving the virus fewer pathways to other infections.

The forecast website that's watched the most is
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
They give a most likely total deaths number in the U.S. of 60K
(warning, large variation on graph and they don't specify their confidence interval on the graph)
which implies 2M total # of infections by mid summer at 3% fatality rate (our country's current).
100% population antigen studies suggest for half of all cases they were not aware they had had CV.
There are other under count issues for both numerators and denominators,
but it's still easy to see that even with an under count multiplier of 3 (3 x 2M = 6M)
we have not reached herd immunity (at least 96M must be immune if the lower HI% is correct!)
without the social engineering we're doing to decrease R0.
Pushing the numbers: worst case deaths is approximately twice the expected so 120K deaths (that projection web site)
and assuming 1% fatality rate we have 12M confirmed cases and, using an under count adjustment factor of 4
we have 48M who are immune to CV by late summer w/o a vaccine.
That's still half (48/96) of the (SWAG) minimum needed to achieve herd immunity
or (48/244) 20% of what's needed to achieve herd immunity if using the higher guessed herd immunity percentage of 74%.
Do read the wikipedia article to compare those HI percentages for CV against other known diseases.

Hence we will need to practice some form of social distancing until a vaccine is available.

Why this isn't discussed more is noted, indirectly,
in a recent article on other countries planning on coming out of our extreme social distancing.
Most do not want to announce their plans on coming out.
-- do not distract everyone with the long term economic/psychological distress
-- focus on taking care of the problem NOW
though, with those caveats, most countries plan an extended form of social distancing
after this first wave blows through (read no contra dancing).

As has been mentioned, extensive testing, surveillance, and quarantine when combined does work.
The Lawfare Podcast for March 28 "Coronavirus Around the World" has an interesting report from S. Korea
(Yale student who returned home when Yale shut down.) at 24:50.
At a national level all cell phone location, surveillance cameras, and purchase data is tracked.
When someone is flagged as having CV all of their possible infection contacts are tracked via that
data (back tracked) immediately and all possible contacts have to get tested ASAP
which takes about half a day over there for everything, result included(!).
(The speaker said that because someone on his flight ended up testing positive he had to be tested
and it took less than half an hour to drive to a test site and get sampled for the test
with the result available a couple hours later.)
Because of this, they, S. Korea, are able to keep shops open, etc.!
But given both our cultural bias against that level of personal monitoring
and our seeming inability to accomplish easy and quick testing (for virus active shedding, not antigen) ....
I'm not betting on that happening.

I may be pushing into la-la land here, but I don't know how dependable the website
      https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
is. Their 'most-likely/dashed-line' projection has daily deaths peaked now.
However, another data source that's collecting data shows, as of 4/10, daily deaths
increasing by 13% day over day.  While that's better than the recent maximum over 30%,
that's still a long way from zero. Admittedly, deaths lag new cases and new cases lag
new infections. It is hard for me to reconcile an increasing death rate over 10% day over day
with the pronouncements that we've likely hit a peak, i.e. that the day over day CV death rate
is at or below 0%.

   


My points are
    -- likely wishful thinking occurring (natural human tendency)
    -- this is still a very nasty disease 
    -- we don't have herd immunity

Hope this helps some.

-Heitzso
http://atgaga.com