Insanity!  Sex orgies are less efficient at transmitting Covid.
The coming China fatalities will be in the millions.
The Covid surge has started.  Look at the curves.
Mac Sloan
New England dancer, primarily Massachusetts
On 23/01/03 6:20 PM, Joe Harrington via Organizers wrote:
  While I'm happy to comply with any COVID policy in
order to dance, and I 
 choose to wear a mask at bigger events, I question whether the contra 
 communities' strict policies are doing us much good, either in 
 protecting us medically or in getting dances going again. Consider:
 
 1. Even in the most restricted states (New England, etc.), nearly 
 everyone is maskless nearly all the time in normal life, including most 
 dancers. People eat in very crowded restaurants, ride public 
 transportation, fly on airplanes, sit in airports, go shopping, work, 
 attend school, do sports, go to the gym, sing, interact with friends and 
 family members who have been out in the community maskless, etc., mostly 
 without masks.
 
 2. As a result of #1, covid is spreading quite effectively in our 
 communities, even if a few groups are still masking.
 
 3. As a result of #2, protocols at a dance cannot much alter community 
 spread rates, even if the dance spread rate were zero.
 
 But, this isn't concerning most people because:
 
 4. Vaccines do keep nearly every infected person out of the hospital and 
 reduce long covid.
 
 5. For those going to the hospital or suspected to be at risk, 
 monoclonal and other treatments are quite effective.
 
 6. As a result, the mortality of covid-19 is now down to three times 
 that of a bad flu season, which is way down from the mass carnage of 2020.
 
 It is questionable what anything but masking is doing for us:
 
 7. Unmasked contra dancing, even with a vaccine and negative test, does 
 lead to rapid covid spread. Several camps in summer 2022 had 50+ 
 infected dancers, even though they were all vaccinated and all had 
 tested negative on arrival. The incubation period and false-negative 
 rate are enough to allow one or two cases through, and the vaccine no 
 longer keeps you from getting it, it just dramatically reduces severity.
 
 Since:
 
 8. Even in the most conservative, vaccine-averse Southern communities, 
 90+% of contra dancers at big events say they are vaccinated (per survey 
 at Summer Contradancers Delight Holiday in Tennessee).
 
 9. Choosing to wear a mask remains an option for everyone, and is quite 
 effective at keeping the wearer healthy, though it is not foolproof (but 
 neither is life).
 
 And:
 
 10. People have options for recreational and social activities, and many 
 are choosing those with fewer or no restrictions, especially young 
 people who don't have much personal risk from covid.
 
 11. Essentially all other organized dance communities besides 
 contra/English/etc. are dancing without restrictions on a national 
 level, and have been since early 2022: Square, swing, blues, ballroom, 
 salsa, tango, etc.
 
 It may therefore be time for communities to reconsider absolute 
 restrictions, and instead encourage vaccination and mask-wearing as 
 effective ways to stop the spread of diseases like covid, but also the 
 flu, RSV, and other pathogens.
 
 People can still (and I do) choose to wear masks if they are concerned 
 about getting covid. The idea of reducing spread at dances would be a 
 good one if the rest of society were playing along. But, it isn't.  When 
 I was a teen, I boycotted China. China didn't change.
 
 Communities with a large component of at-risk dancers who mask in 
 general life and who are vaccinated may wish to continue requiring 
 vax+mask.  In areas with many dancers, two dances, one requiring masks 
 and one mask-optional, may make the most sense.
 
 I am especially concerned at the reduced percentage of younger dancers I 
 have seen at recent events. While it seemed, prepandemic, that there was 
 a nascent resurgence in the popularity of contra among the current 
 twentysomethings, few of the young dancers I used to see are showing up 
 to dances post-covid. When I go to swing and blues, there are lots of 
 younger dancers.  I am certain that if we required masks at my college 
 contra dance, students would just go to ballroom, salsa, or swing.
 
 If we want to get contra going again, and especially if we want to 
 attract many new younger dancers, who are not worried that getting covid 
 represents a big risk to them and who have plenty of unrestricted 
 options in recreational activities, perhaps it's time not to ask, "does 
 this policy stop covid from transmitting at our dance," but rather, 
 "does this policy significantly lower the total covid risk our dancers 
 face?"
 
 I argue that strict policies no longer do that, given our behavior in 
 society.  Nonetheless, those of us who are concerned can still choose to 
 reduce our own risk substantially by being vaccinated and wearing a 
 well-fitting KN95 or better mask whenever we are in a crowd, including 
 at dances, without requiring it of others.  I do.
 
 Thanks,
 
 --jh--
 Joe Harrington
 Organizer, Greater Orlando Contra Dance
 Faculty Advisor, Contra Knights, the UCF contra dancing club
 
contraknights.org <http://contraknights.org>
 FB, Ig: Contra Knights
 contradancerjoe(a)gmail.com <mailto:contradancerjoe@gmail.com>
 
 
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