I'm going to avoid the public health data,
etc. aspect and approach this
 in a more practical way...
 Under the business maxim that it's far cheaper/ easier to keep an
 existing customer than obtain a new one, my simplified perspective is: what
 does your community want?
 I asked mine back around April. The local BIDA group did so in a wider
 way more recently. In both cases the answer was effectively "not yet".
 Sure, some were ready to remove all measures. Others, parts. But the
 significant majority wanted the existing measures to continue.
 One might argue that's not surprising given the folks most likely to
 reply were those willing to attend under the existing circumstances. But
 those are the folks we *have* and there's great difficulty accurately
 determining what would happen under a different scheme (provided one was
 inclined to try it) - will sufficient of those that haven't been attending
 be willing to swerve sharply away from their substitute activities to make
 up for the known entities that will shy away due to the change?
 I'm not ready to take that leap with the expenses of my dance yet.
 -Don
 P.S.: this applies to both performers and dancers - when I asked, the
 callers were particularly concerned about retaining the existing measures
 and the musicians slightly less so.
 On Tue, Jan 3, 2023, 6:20 PM Joe Harrington via Organizers <
 organizers(a)lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:
  While I'm happy to comply with any COVID
policy in order to dance, and I
 choose to wear a mask at bigger events, I question whether the contra
 communities' strict policies are doing us much good, either in protecting
 us medically or in getting dances going again. Consider:
 1. Even in the most restricted states (New England, etc.), nearly
 everyone is maskless nearly all the time in normal life, including most
 dancers. People eat in very crowded restaurants, ride public
 transportation, fly on airplanes, sit in airports, go shopping, work,
 attend school, do sports, go to the gym, sing, interact with friends and
 family members who have been out in the community maskless, etc., mostly
 without masks.
 2. As a result of #1, covid is spreading quite effectively in our
 communities, even if a few groups are still masking.
 3. As a result of #2, protocols at a dance cannot much alter community
 spread rates, even if the dance spread rate were zero.
 But, this isn't concerning most people because:
 4. Vaccines do keep nearly every infected person out of the hospital and
 reduce long covid.
 5. For those going to the hospital or suspected to be at risk,
 monoclonal and other treatments are quite effective.
 6. As a result, the mortality of covid-19 is now down to three times
 that of a bad flu season, which is way down from the mass carnage of 2020.
 It is questionable what anything but masking is doing for us:
 7. Unmasked contra dancing, even with a vaccine and negative test, does
 lead to rapid covid spread. Several camps in summer 2022 had 50+ infected
 dancers, even though they were all vaccinated and all had tested negative
 on arrival. The incubation period and false-negative rate are enough to
 allow one or two cases through, and the vaccine no longer keeps you from
 getting it, it just dramatically reduces severity.
 Since:
 8. Even in the most conservative, vaccine-averse Southern communities,
 90+% of contra dancers at big events say they are vaccinated (per survey at
 Summer Contradancers Delight Holiday in Tennessee).
 9. Choosing to wear a mask remains an option for everyone, and is quite
 effective at keeping the wearer healthy, though it is not foolproof (but
 neither is life).
 And:
 10. People have options for recreational and social activities, and many
 are choosing those with fewer or no restrictions, especially young people
 who don't have much personal risk from covid.
 11. Essentially all other organized dance communities besides
 contra/English/etc. are dancing without restrictions on a national
 level, and have been since early 2022: Square, swing, blues, ballroom,
 salsa, tango, etc.
 It may therefore be time for communities to reconsider absolute
 restrictions, and instead encourage vaccination and mask-wearing as
 effective ways to stop the spread of diseases like covid, but also the flu,
 RSV, and other pathogens.
 People can still (and I do) choose to wear masks if they are concerned
 about getting covid. The idea of reducing spread at dances would be a good
 one if the rest of society were playing along. But, it isn't.  When I was a
 teen, I boycotted China. China didn't change.
 Communities with a large component of at-risk dancers who mask in
 general life and who are vaccinated may wish to continue requiring
 vax+mask.  In areas with many dancers, two dances, one requiring masks and
 one mask-optional, may make the most sense.
 I am especially concerned at the reduced percentage of younger dancers I
 have seen at recent events. While it seemed, prepandemic, that there was a
 nascent resurgence in the popularity of contra among the current
 twentysomethings, few of the young dancers I used to see are showing up to
 dances post-covid. When I go to swing and blues, there are lots of younger
 dancers.  I am certain that if we required masks at my college contra
 dance, students would just go to ballroom, salsa, or swing.
 If we want to get contra going again, and especially if we want to
 attract many new younger dancers, who are not worried that getting covid
 represents a big risk to them and who have plenty of unrestricted options
 in recreational activities, perhaps it's time not to ask, "does this policy
 stop covid from transmitting at our dance," but rather, "does this policy
 significantly lower the total covid risk our dancers face?"
 I argue that strict policies no longer do that, given our behavior in
 society.  Nonetheless, those of us who are concerned can still choose to
 reduce our own risk substantially by being vaccinated and wearing a
 well-fitting KN95 or better mask whenever we are in a crowd, including at
 dances, without requiring it of others.  I do.
 Thanks,
 --jh--
 Joe Harrington
 Organizer, Greater Orlando Contra Dance
 Faculty Advisor, Contra Knights, the UCF contra dancing club
 
contraknights.org
 FB, Ig: Contra Knights
 contradancerjoe(a)gmail.com
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