On Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 9:03 PM Walker Sloan via Organizers <organizers@lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:

Per census.gov, the US population on Dec 29 was, rounded, 334 million.
"Cases" must include repeats.

Mac Sloan

On 23/01/04 8:49 PM, Jeff Kaufman via Organizers wrote:
> "we've now crossed 100M cumulative cases in the US"
>
> More like 400M: the CDC estimates that there were ~4x as many cases as
> reported cases:
> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
> <https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html>
>
> Jeff
>
> On Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 6:26 PM Lex Spoon via Organizers
> <organizers@lists.sharedweight.net
> <mailto:organizers@lists.sharedweight.net>> wrote:
>
> It's a difficult subject but is important for all our dances. It's
> heartening to see such a positive discussion of such an important
> subject. If people can't talk about it here, then where, and if they
> can't talk about it anywhere, then does everyone just have to be
> dumb and to reinvent the wheel alone? I appreciate everyone's
> courtesy and hope my message comes through the same way.
>
> I agree, as far as they go, on the 11 high-level points in the
> opening message, and also on the pragmatic approach of polling and
> surveying your own, actual dancers. Contra dancers tend to be
> special compared to the general public, and indeed that's some of
> the appeal, for all us strange birds to find each other. Also,
> thanks tremendously for the posted survey results, though I'd
> underscore the issue of response level with surveys. The
> non-responders may well be those who don't have a strong opinion and
> who will simply comply with whatever the policy is.
>
> The post about running an experiment on different policies resonated
> with me. The Atlanta organizers did something similar when they
> started opening up as well. The great thing about having an
> experiment--e.g. different lines, or different policies on different
> nights--is that you can see what people do with their feet, as
> opposed to what they say in a survey.
>
> Here are a few aspects I don't yet see mentioned.
>
> So far the thread is about entry conditions, but an additional part
> of a Covid policy is about how people treat each other. Similar to
> policies about respectful treatment of each other, it's valuable to
> encourage dancers to make no assumptions about each other's mask
> status. As a personal note to show why this can be so important,
> someone close to me was reluctant to wear masks for years, well
> before Covid-19, because people would treat you so funny if they saw
> a mask on you. Organizers can enforce this kind of thing by first of
> all saying it's the policy, loudly and in front of the whole dance
> hall; and also, they can show the door to anyone that just has to
> make an issue out of everything and is making the others
> uncomfortable. This kind of policy makes a dance very attractive as
> a safe space during something that's a difficult time for all of us.
>
> The thread on dances as spreaders raised an important question, but
> alas not very convincing for me. As I quietly predicted, a bunch of
> people posted about how they aren't aware of their dance being a
> spreader. What did we learn, though? Contact tracing is hard at the
> best of times, and I'm not sure people on that thread have done
> careful evidence gathering such as randomized testing before and
> after the dance. Our best information is therefore the general
> research literature, even though it's not specific to contra dance.
> The literature is dense, messy, and generally not as conclusive as
> would be convenient for any of us. In general, though, all group
> events are spreaders, and it would be a scientific miracle if even
> the strictest contra dances aren't a source of transmission to some
> level.
>
> As people think about their own dance, bear in mind that different
> dances have different conditions. National events with attendees
> from all over are the worst spreaders and deserve the strictest
> policies (to the extent they open their doors at all). At the other
> end of the spectrum, dances with fewer attendees are less likely to
> be spreaders. Dances with *local* attendees, especially by people
> who already socialize with each other outside the dance, are also
> less likely to be spreaders. Ventilation matters, with outside
> dances being the least likely to spread Covid. Age matters as well;
> younger dancers will have reduced symptoms and health risk.
>
> It has happened by inches, but nowadays the U.S. population is
> mostly immunized. According to the CDC, we're up to 80% who have had
> at least one vaccine dose, and 69% who have received a complete
> primary series. In addition to the vaccine, we've now crossed 100M
> cumulative cases in the US. Between those two factors, most dancers
> at an event will be immunized even with no overt policy at all.
>
> Covid treatment is better than it used to be. I'm out of my depth
> except to say that if you ask a health practitioner, you get an
> incredibly different picture of the hospitals nowadays compared to
> even a year ago.
>
> Finally, it's not a yes/no policy question but has some options. You
> can make masking optional but still require vaccination, etc.
>
> Good luck everyone, and happy dancing this year, in whatever form it
> may take.
>
> Lex Spoon
>
>
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