"we've now crossed 100M cumulative cases in the US"
More like 400M: the CDC estimates that there were ~4x as many cases as
reported cases:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
Jeff
On Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 6:26 PM Lex Spoon via Organizers <
organizers(a)lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:
  It's a difficult subject but is important for all
our dances. It's
 heartening to see such a positive discussion of such an important subject.
 If people can't talk about it here, then where, and if they can't talk
 about it anywhere, then does everyone just have to be dumb and to reinvent
 the wheel alone? I appreciate everyone's courtesy and hope my message comes
 through the same way.
 I agree, as far as they go, on the 11 high-level points in the opening
 message, and also on the pragmatic approach of polling and surveying your
 own, actual dancers. Contra dancers tend to be special compared to the
 general public, and indeed that's some of the appeal, for all us strange
 birds to find each other. Also, thanks tremendously for the posted survey
 results, though I'd underscore the issue of response level with surveys.
 The non-responders may well be those who don't have a strong opinion and
 who will simply comply with whatever the policy is.
 The post about running an experiment on different policies resonated with
 me.  The Atlanta organizers did something similar when they started opening
 up as well. The great thing about having an experiment--e.g. different
 lines, or different policies on different nights--is that you can see what
 people do with their feet, as opposed to what they say in a survey.
 Here are a few aspects I don't yet see mentioned.
 So far the thread is about entry conditions, but an additional part of a
 Covid policy is about how people treat each other. Similar to policies
 about respectful treatment of each other, it's valuable to encourage
 dancers to make no assumptions about each other's mask status. As a
 personal note to show why this can be so important, someone close to me was
 reluctant to wear masks for years, well before Covid-19, because people
 would treat you so funny if they saw a mask on you. Organizers can enforce
 this kind of thing by first of all saying it's the policy, loudly and in
 front of the whole dance hall; and also, they can show the door to anyone
 that just has to make an issue out of everything and is making the others
 uncomfortable. This kind of policy makes a dance very attractive as a safe
 space during something that's a difficult time for all of us.
 The thread on dances as spreaders raised an important question, but alas
 not very convincing for me. As I quietly predicted, a bunch of people
 posted about how they aren't aware of their dance being a spreader. What
 did we learn, though? Contact tracing is hard at the best of times, and I'm
 not sure people on that thread have done careful evidence gathering such as
 randomized testing before and after the dance. Our best information is
 therefore the general research literature, even though it's not specific to
 contra dance. The literature is dense, messy, and generally not as
 conclusive as would be convenient for any of us. In general, though, all
 group events are spreaders, and it would be a scientific miracle if even
 the strictest contra dances aren't a source of transmission to some level.
 As people think about their own dance, bear in mind that different dances
 have different conditions. National events with attendees from all over are
 the worst spreaders and deserve the strictest policies (to the extent they
 open their doors at all). At the other end of the spectrum, dances with
 fewer attendees are less likely to be spreaders.  Dances with *local*
 attendees, especially by people who already socialize with each other
 outside the dance, are also less likely to be spreaders. Ventilation
 matters, with outside dances being the least likely to spread Covid. Age
 matters as well; younger dancers will have reduced symptoms and health risk.
 It has happened by inches, but nowadays the U.S. population is mostly
 immunized. According to the CDC, we're up to 80% who have had at least one
 vaccine dose, and 69% who have received a complete primary series. In
 addition to the vaccine, we've now crossed 100M cumulative cases in the US.
 Between those two factors, most dancers at an event will be immunized even
 with no overt policy at all.
 Covid treatment is better than it used to be. I'm out of my depth except
 to say that if you ask a health practitioner, you get an incredibly
 different picture of the hospitals nowadays compared to even a year ago.
 Finally, it's not a yes/no policy question but has some options. You can
 make masking optional but still require vaccination, etc.
 Good luck everyone, and happy dancing this year, in whatever form it may
 take.
 Lex Spoon
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