But we do have to be careful not to confuse the (far lower) chances of catching Covid of the general population, vs. the chances if you go to an optimal super-spreader event like a contra dance (face-to-face, breathing hard, for 3 hours, indoors: the optimal conditions for passing on the virus.) I think referring folks to the medical experts at the CDSS event is a great idea, since what is safe for opening up contra is going to be very different than opening up for nearly everything else. :-( Fervently wishing that were not the case!!! I miss you all!
Hugs all around!
Becky

On May 9, 2021, at 3:27 PM, Julia Whiteneck via Contra Callers <contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:

My intention was simply to clarify the definition of efficacy - I have seen a perpetuation of misunderstanding of efficacy to be the same as the chances of getting the virus by the unvaccinated general population when the difference is orders of magnitude. That is. unvaccinated your chance is 1% of catching the virus in the first place (1000 out of 100,000) while vaccinated your chances are 95% efficacy or 0.0005% (50 out of 100,000).
I will be the first to admit that I am not on the forefront of having to decide when dancing starts up so just want the numbers to make sense to those who are doing the deciding.

From: Ron Blechner <contraron@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, May 9, 2021 3:06 PM
To: Julia Whiteneck <juliawhiteneck@hotmail.com>
Cc: contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net <contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net>; Woody Lane <woody@woodylane.com>
Subject: Re: [Callers] Re: Question on Gig Requests
 
Julia,

I appreciate the additions (especially as, myself, a scientist appreciating good science), however, I'm uncertain your intentions with your reply. 

This does not take into account immunocompromised people or those who medically cannot be vaccinated, or family members of either.

Also, people who get less severe Covid-19 are, by definition, more likely to not know they have it, and thus, pass it along.

It also doesn't take into account points already brought up - ongoing need for proof of vaccinated people being non-carriers, and variants in existence and/or that will continue to mutate until we have global herd immunity.

As stewards of our community, we have an obligation and opportunity to show that we're serious about our shared values of inclusion and safety for our friends and loved ones with which we share the joy of dancing.

I really like what Woody's leadership in speaking out in caution on this.

CDSS is having its 4th reentry talk on May 19th. Their previous ones have bee  excellent, and included medical and legal experts. I would encourage everyone to consider this talk - or similar - as essential resources for us; callers and organizers are stewards for our community.

Sincerely,
Ron Blechner


On Sun, May 9, 2021, 2:01 PM Julia Whiteneck via Contra Callers <contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net> wrote:
Thank you for thinking about this. Efficacy is NOT efficiency. So, actually, the efficacy relates to the number of people who would have gotten the disease. So, the 5% is applied to the people who would have gotten the disease if not vaccinated.

So - of 1000 dancers, 100 might have gotten Covid-19 unvaccinated, but vaccinated, the expectation is that 5 to 10 of the 1000 dancers will contract Covid-19. What is 100% though, is that any of those 10 who get the disease will not be hospitalized (symptoms would not require hospital treatment or intubation) IF they get Covid-19.

From: Woody Lane via Contra Callers <contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net>
Sent: Saturday, May 8, 2021 8:49 PM
To: contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net <contracallers@lists.sharedweight.net>
Subject: [Callers] Re: Question on Gig Requests
 
Hi Everyone,

I wanted to thank you all for such insightful comments. The discussion touched a lot of bases, often from different perspectives. But these comments have been very helpful to me, and hopefully to everyone. Thanks for spending the time constructing responses.

I'll add one more thing -- something I've been considering (since I spend a lot of time with numbers. I've also written this for the Trad Callers listserv so some here may have seen it.) --

The vaccines are 90%-95% effective, with those numbers derived from Phase III Trials each with fewer than 30,000 adults per treatment. Even if that observed efficacy accurately described the population, it would mean that 5%-10% of those fully vaccinated folks would still be vulnerable to the virus. Consider an indoor dance with 100 dancers who were all vaccinated -- assuming that the organizers found a way of enforcing a vaccinated-only entry requirement. Those numbers would suggest that the room would still contain 5-10 dancers who were not protected. Now include the existence today of covid variants that are much more aggressively infectious than the original virus, and more virulent. In a room where the primary activity specializes in people holding each other close and breathing into each other's faces. In addition, we really don't know if vaccinated people can carry the virus and possibly transmit it. Now add to the room a few people who came in because it's a public event but who are not vaccinated. Sure, masks would help, and so would good air turnover in the room. But still . .

I really like Ken's suggested approach of "chilling out" -- as in what's the rush in the face of a deadly, highly contagious respiratory disease that has political overtones.

Woody


On 5/4/2021 1:37 PM, Woody Lane via Contra Callers wrote:
Hi Everyone,

The pandemic has shut down dances for nearly 15 months, but things may be beginning to change. I would like your input on this --

I just received my first request to call at a regular community dance. The dance would be scheduled for September. (The organizers are beginning to schedule for the fall.) This would be a typical evening indoor dance held in a gym. Pre-covid attendance was 70-100. The organizers assured me that safety protocols would be followed, etc. I have not responded yet. (I am fully vaccinated.)

Has anyone else begun receiving invitations to call dances? How far out? What are your thoughts on this situation? What is your sense of risk and comfort and community responsibility? I'd really like to get some feedback from this group.

Thanks!
Woody

--
<><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><>
Woody Lane
Caller, Percussive Dancer
Roseburg, Oregon
http://www.woodylanecaller.com
cell: 541-556-0054

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